Global Development & the U.S. Election

Here are a few issues we will be tracking in the countdown to November 5th.

Dear Unlock Aid Community,

It’s been a wild political ride here in the United States over the past few months, with both parties holding their political conventions, and President Biden passing the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s nominee.

This has significantly shifted the energy of the presidential campaign. Vice President Harris and former President Trump are locked head-to-head in the polls. They will debate tonight for the first time.

We created Unlock Aid to give social innovators a seat at the table in Washington D.C., especially to create a space for our community to champion ideas that promote innovation, impact, and broad-based, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.

With the U.S. presidential election just eight weeks away, and with so much at stake for the issues we care about, here are five things we’ll be watching during the debate and in the weeks between now and Election Day on November 5:

1. How would a Harris agenda differ from a Biden agenda on global development?
   
   Usually when American political leaders visit the African continent their messages are about similar themes: security and stability; humanitarian crises; and U.S. foreign aid. But when Vice President Kamala Harris visited the continent last year, she led with something else: innovation. She talked about mobile financial technology in East Africa, construction of the world’s largest radio telescope in South Africa, and countries using drones to deliver emergency blood supplies and life-saving healthcare commodities in West Africa, for example. "We must invest in African ingenuity and creativity, which will unlock incredible economic growth and opportunities, not only for the people of the 54 countries that make up this diverse continent, but for the American people and people around the world," she said. In Central America, she’s used her time in office to channel private sector investment (as opposed to just aid) to boost employment. While we’d expect some continuity with a Biden Administration agenda, we’ll be looking for clues that indicate where else she might differ.

2. How much will global development matter in this election?

   
   We know foreign policy issues like the war in Gaza will influence how many voters will cast their ballots in November. So will trade issues. “But voters don’t care about other issues in global development” is the common refrain that Washington, DC insiders tell us. We think they’re wrong. Diaspora communities in the United States care a whole lot about how the United States shows up around the world, for example. So do small businesses and big businesses alike, all of which depend on global supply chains. We are all affected by a fast-changing climate. With a U.S. election that could very likely be determined by just tens of thousands of votes, even smaller constituencies can sway an election. We expect issues affecting global development and U.S. foreign policy will only become more important as the world becomes increasingly interconnected. We’ll be watching to see where these issues register at ballot boxes.

3. To what extent will campaigns talk about innovation this election?
   
   To date, most of the political and foreign policy debates surrounding new technologies like artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, quantum computing, and other emerging fields have focused on ways to manage the downsides. These are real, and some risks are potentially catastrophic. Some of the debate has also focused on global competition, with many American political leaders focused on ensuring the U.S. maintains an edge in these fields. We’ll also be interested to see if the campaigns can talk about how we can also harness these technologies for enormous social and global good, especially to accelerate advances in drug discovery, clean energy, and climate adaptation. The United States is a world leader in many of these fields. So are our friends in places like the United Kingdom and South Korea, and increasingly so in places like Kenya, the site of a major $1 billion digital ecosystem investment by Microsoft and G42, for example. We’ll be looking to see which candidates cite collaboration on technology and innovation with our partners and allies around the world as a way to reboot our U.S. foreign policy and global development strategies.

4. How about cracking down on industry consolidation and promoting competition?
   
   This back and forth yesterday on social media caught our eye. Box CEO Aaron Levie commented on Apple’s announcement of new features that can turn AirPods into hearing aids. American Economic Liberties Project CEO Matt Stoller responded that this was made possible because of a new FDA rule that breaks up the hearing aid cartel.

   

   Consolidation in any sector drives up prices, squashes competition, and stifles innovation. While this example relates to the hearing aid industry, we see consolidation and monopolistic behavior in many domains, and especially in government contracting, where the same usual players win big government grants and contracts over and over again. This limits the potential of U.S. federal agencies to work with the world’s most innovative players to solve the world’s most challenging problems. We’ll be watching to see how much these themes come up in the weeks that remain during this election.

5. How much of the U.S. foreign policy debate focuses on the theme of “Great Power Competition?”
   
   There are risks to “debt-trap diplomacy” and other coercive tactics employed by authoritarian states around the world. However, countries are increasingly tired of being told they must choose between the United States and China – especially if the U.S. can’t present a compelling counteroffer. We want to see the United States revitalize its global development agencies and strategies to present countries with a better value proposition, especially one that is focused more on investment, innovation, and promoting broad-based and sustainable economic growth. But rather than talking about the world in zero-sum or Great Power Competition terms, we’ll be looking to see if U.S. political candidates (at all levels, including congressional candidates) can instead articulate foreign policy visions that are more forward-looking, focused on working with partners around the world to solve our shared global challenges.

One of our advisors recently told us, “The time when the most policy change happens in the United States is during the last 100 days of a presidential administration or the first 100 days of the next.” We’re about to get both.

Regardless of who wins in November, we know there will be a lot of work to do to shape the agenda for the next administration. As we start to put together our recommendations for what the next U.S. president should prioritize during their first 100 days, we’d welcome your input.

This is a pivotal election for the future of the United States and for the world. We look forward to working with you to build a better future together.

Enjoy the debate and we’ll see you on the campaign trail.

To Progress,
Unlock Aid